1. regulatory environment & EU market signals

CBAM: Less price-driving than expected - but still shaping the market

• The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has been fully operational since 1.1.2026.

• Traders, importers and fertilizer blenders unanimously report that the actual CO₂ costs for imported fertilizers are lower than originally assumed, partly due to discounted upstream supply chains and emission factors subject to correction.

• The EU Commission is still examining possible transitional arrangements or temporary suspensions, but no decision is expected before March.

2. price level - integrated view

A) Nitrogen fertilizers (urea, AHL, KAS)

EU-wide:

• Slight downward trend for urea (-3 to -7 €/t week/week).

• KAS stable to minimally declining.

• Gas prices remain moderate - easing production costs.

Germany:

• Urea-based components readily available, no procurement stress.

• Mixing plants report: "KAS just below high demand, but no price pull".

• AHL deliveries: problem-free, but demand subdued.

B) Phosphates (DAP, MAP)

EU-wide

• Prices remain high, but without upward pressure.

• International demand (especially India/North Africa) moderate.

Germany:

• DAP prices stable, hardly any dealer movement.

• Demand in Germany weak - many are waiting into the week of March.

• Phosphate components remain "expensive to buy".

• Little progress in price negotiations for March.

C) Potash (MOP/KCl)

EU-wide:

• Very stable, hardly any weekly movement.

Germany:

• Prices largely unchanged.

• Dealer warehouses well filled.

• Supply chains stable

3. supply & demand - harmonized view

Supply

• Import flows moderate but sufficient according to EU data.

• Fertilizer blenders report: hardly any shortages of basic components.

• Logistics normalization since mid-February relieves KAS/AHL transport.

Demand

• Germany and parts of Western Europe: very restrained orders, as there is

  • little pressure to produce due to weather conditions,

  • Farmers are waiting for March prices,

  • CBAM costs are not yet fully transparent.

4 Bullish and bearish factors

Bullish

• Potentially rising gas prices in March.

• CBAM remains a structural cost driver for imports.

• Spring orders could pick up abruptly from week 10/11.

Bearish

• High dealer and blending stocks.

• Subdued demand (weather + wait-and-see + financing).

• Political discussions about possible CBAM suspensions.

• Global urea market weaker since mid-February.

5. summary

Nitrogen (Urea/KAS/AHL)

✔ Slightly weaker
✔ Traders report downward price pressure
✔ No bottleneck signals

Phosphates (DAP/MAP)

✔ Prices stable-high
✔ Demand still very cautious
✔ Purchasing remains expensive

Potash (MOP/KCl)

✔ Stable calm - no price risks
✔ Mixing plants benefit from stable potash components

Overall conclusion:

The European fertilizer market is showing stability at a high level, accompanied by

• some downward pressure on nitrogen,

• Phosphate on a plateau,

• Potash completely stable.