Clear break in the market

The fertilizer market is currently in a phase of strong price jumps ("explosion")

The difference to before:

• CW 10: Shock only in the world market

• CW 12: Shock reaches EuropeNitrogen(urea, KAS, AHL)

🌍 World market

• Massive price jumps

• Import prices Europe:

  • Urea up to ~700 €/t

• Cause:

  • Supply shortfall in the Gulf region

  • exploding freight and insurance costs

🇪🇺 Europe / Germany (domestic market)

• Prices are now starting to fall noticeably

• First effects:

  • Dealers withdraw offers

  • Daily prices are rising

  • Strong price differences between suppliers
    The domestic market is now following suit - no longer subdued.

Phosphates (DAP/MAP)

• also under pressure due to:

  • Sulphur and ammonia availability

• Moderate price increases, but no "explosion market"

Rising, but significantly less dynamic than nitrogen

Potash (MOP/KCl)

• still stable

• Hardly directly affected by the Iran conflict

➡ Remains a "calm anchor" in the market

Supply situation

• Import volumes collapse massively in some cases

  • Reports speak of -70 to -80 % import volumes

• Supply chains increasingly disrupted

• Availability of raw materials critical:

  • Ammonia

  • phosphate

  • sulphur

Systemic bottleneck

Demand & market behavior

Farmers

• Increasing nervousness

• increased:

  • Pull-forward effects

  • Hedging purchases

Traders

• react actively:

  • Offers are shortened

  • Daily prices instead of list prices

  • Risk premiums

Market tilts from "buyer's market" → seller's market

Bullish & bearish factors

Bullish (dominating!)

• Massive disruption of global supply chains

• Blockade of important trade routes

• Sharp rise in energy prices

• Import prices explode

• Physical availability decreases

Bearish

• Some stocks still in Europe

• Demand was previously weak
  
  The market is now clearly bullish dominated

Short-term forecast (end of March / April 2026)

Nitrogen

• Further upside potential

• High volatility

• Risk of further price spikes

Phosphates

• moderate increase

• dependent on availability of raw materials

Potash

• stable

Summary

In week 12, the European fertilizer market is for the first time in a phase in which the

• World market shock has fully arrived in Europe

• Import prices have risen massively (urea up to ~700 €/t)

• Supply risks are becoming real