Market now in the "transmission phase of the price shock"

The European fertilizer market has a clear structure in week 13

➡ World market: already in shock mode
➡ Europe: price transmission is now in full swing

The cause is still clear:

• Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz → drastic slump in logistics

• resulting in massive disruption to ammonia, urea and sulphur deliveries

• Sharp rise in energy prices (oil > USD 100/barrel)

The result is a global supply and logistics shock with a direct impact on fertilizer prices

Significant price development in week 13

Nitrogen (urea, KAS, AHL)

🌍 World market

• Urea: +60-80 USD/t within a few days

• Import prices Europe: reached up to ~700 €/t

🇩🇪 Germany

• Prices are now rising noticeably and dynamically

• Traders react:

  • Offers are being withdrawn

  • Daily prices instead of list prices

• according to market reports:

  • KAS from ~38 €/dt → 44-46 €/dt within a short time. This corresponds to +15 to +25 % within 2-3 weeks. The price shock has now reached the German market.

Phosphates (DAP/MAP)

• Moderate price reaction

• Cause:

  • indirect effect via ammonia & energy

• Movement:

  • +5 to +15 %

Still more stable than nitrogen

Potash (MOP/KCl)

• Hardly any direct effect

• Prices:

  • largely stable

remains "calm market anchor"

Supply situation

• Transportation through Hormuz almost at a standstill in some cases

• Import flows severely restricted

• Traders report:

  • Uncertainty of supply

  • Longer delivery times

As a result, there is no complete shortage - but clear supply stress

Demand & market behavior

Farmers

• are increasingly reacting:

  • Hedging purchases

  • Short-term procurement

• Nervousness increases significantly

Traders

• Behavior changes significantly:

  • Risk premiums

  • Shortened offer period

  • Pricing partially suspended

Clearly a seller's market

Market development

Bullish

• Massive disruption of global supply chains

• Energy prices high

• Import prices have risen sharply

• Rising demand (spring!)

• Price pass-through now visible in the domestic market

Bearish

• existing stocks

• demand still restrained in some areas
  

  On the verge of market distortion:

• The Iran conflict has led to massive price jumps on the global market

• These effects are fully visible on the European market in week 13

• Nitrogen fertilizer is the clearly dominant price driver

• Retail prices in Germany are now rising dynamically (+15-25%)

Short-term forecast

Nitrogen

➡ Still high risk:

• +10 to +30 % possible

• depending on the course of the conflict

Phosphates

➡ moderate increase

Potash

➡ stable