Current trends (last 2-4 weeks)
Nitrogen fertilizers (ammonia, urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate)
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In Europe, prices for nitrogen fertilizers have recently risen significantly once again. According to ICIS, the European "nitrogen basket" (e.g. granular urea, UAN 30, CAN 27) reached its highest level since the beginning of 2023 on November 20.
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The fall in natural gas prices is improving manufacturers' margins, but this is not necessarily leading to price reductions - demand remains robust, partly due to concerns about supply shortages and impending costs from CO₂ pricing and CBAM.
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Globally, urea remains volatile: according to TradingEconomics, the price fell to around USD 350/t on December 4, 2025
Phosphate fertilizers (MAP/DAP) and potash
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The global price trend for phosphates and potash remains on an upward trajectory: Several sources see a significant price increase for 2025.
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According to global market estimates, phosphates could be up to +36-41% more expensive year-on-year than in 2024.
Influence from the Black Sea region (Russia/Ukraine) on the EU
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The EU has introduced an import duty on Russian urea (and other nitrogen fertilizers) since July 2025. This has greatly reduced imports from Russia - among other things, urea imports from Russia have fallen by around two thirds compared to June 2025.
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As ammonia is exempt from this levy, Russian ammonia continues to exert downward pressure on prices - at the same time, European domestic or alternative imports (e.g. Egypt, Oman, China) are increasing.
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Overall, the EU market is shifting away from Russian supplies - this is supporting prices for non-Russian suppliers, especially for nitrogen fertilizers.
2-4 week outlook
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Nitrogen fertilizers (Europe): Prices are likely to remain at a high level in the short term - due to existing demand ahead of winter orders, uncertainty over gas prices and CO₂/CBAM costs as well as reduced Russian supply volumes. A slight consolidation or sideways movement is possible as long as no new gas or energy price shocks occur.
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Phosphates & Potash: Due to global demand and continued uncertain export flows (e.g. from Russia/Belarus), moderate further price increases are expected, particularly if China tightens its export policy or logistical bottlenecks occur.
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USA: While price pressure remains high in Europe, US prices could remain stable or fall slightly, depending on the gas market and supply situation - however, the high price level is having a dampening effect on new large orders. However, global shortages of phosphates and potash should also support US prices.
Significance for Germany / EU & USA
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Price pressure is intensifying for EU farmers: nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers remain expensive - import alternatives from non-Russian sources are driving up prices.
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For German suppliers, the market environment could stabilize or improve in the medium term as long as energy prices remain moderate and EU production becomes more profitable.
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For US farmers, the trend in fertilizer costs remains moderate - but potash and phosphates could become more expensive due to global supply shortages.
Conclusion
The current market environment is characterized by high prices, supply uncertainty and geopolitical upheaval. Nitrogen fertilizers in Europe are experiencing a renewed appreciation, mainly due to reduced Russian supplies and prepared winter purchases. Phosphates and potash remain in demand globally and are driving up prices. In the next 2-4 weeks, price levels should remain largely stable to slightly rising, provided there are no significant energy or trade shocks.
