1. market overview & figures
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According to Mordor Intelligence, the market volume in Europe is expected to reach around USD 55.27 billion by 2025, with a forecast CAGR of 5.51% until 2030 - target value ~USD 72.27 billion
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In contrast, ResearchAndMarkets forecasts more moderate growth: from USD 43.4 billion (2024) to USD 54.21 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 2.5%
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In the organic fertilizer segment, Persistence Market Research forecasts an increase from USD 2.298 billion (2025) to USD 3.525 billion (2032) at a CAGR of 6.3%
Conclusion: The overall market in Europe is growing moderately to solidly, while organic fertilizers are likely to grow at an above-average rate - supported by sustainability trends and EU subsidies.
2 Current market drivers & situation
Price & cost development
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EU tariffs on Russian fertilizers from July 2025 (§40 €/t, rising to 315 €/t by 2028) are driving up prices: e.g. urea 26.5% more expensive (May-July)
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Input costs are also rising for important raw materials such as phosphate & sulphur - putting pressure on companies' margins
Geopolitical dependencies & alternatives
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Russia's fertilizer exports to the EU amounted to around 6.2 million tonnes in 2024, worth around € 2.2 billion, which according to the EU is worth over € 550 million in taxes for Russia
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The EU is trying to reduce dependencies and cut energy consumption and CO₂ emissions by promoting manure-based fertilizers (Renure)
Logistics & market infrastructure
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EUFertilizers Market Observatory provides monthly price, trade and production data - serves as a basis for transparency and policy development
3. structure and segments
| Segment | Characteristics / development |
|---|---|
| Total market | USD 55 - 74 billion (depending on source), growth between 2.5 - 6 % |
| Organic fertilizers | Strong growth at 6.3% CAGR (2025-2032) |
| Input costs & tariffs | Rising costs - burden for farmers |
| Sustainability & replacement solutions | Renure & precision fertilizers gain importance |
