New IGC estimate without surprises, but with some deviating results
The International Grains Council has not made any unexpected changes to its monthly estimates for the grain and oilseed market.
The world grain harvest is estimated at 1.93 billion tons (previous year: 1.79 billion tons). Compared to other estimating institutions, the IGC's method tends to be at the lower end of the range of harvest results.
With consumption rising to 1.89 billion tons (previous year: 1.82 billion tons), this results in an increase in stocks of around 37 million tons to 367 million tons at the end of the marketing year. In relation to consumption, this results in a "stock to use ratio" of 19.4%. This ratio indicates a slightly below-average supply situation on the global market. Similar results are also largely confirmed by other forecasting institutes.
In the case of the wheat estimate, the IGC, at 793 million tons, remains well behind other estimates, which are now all above 700 million tons. Wheat consumption is also estimated to be significantly lower at 687 million tons. In terms of the "stock to use ratio", the IGC calculates a good average result of 26.2%, in contrast to other estimators, who see the wheat market as rather short of supply.
The supply estimate for the world maize harvest (stock to use ratio 16.1%) is similarly favorable, even though the figures are expected to be significantly lower than those of other estimating institutions.
According to IGC calculations, the soybean harvest is expected to be very favorable. The increase in production will exceed the increase in consumption, so that stocks can be built up again somewhat in the end. This assessment is also made by other institutions.
A direct comparison with other estimating institutions is not possible due to the different allocation of the marketing years July/June or Oct/Sept. depending on local harvest conditions. A meaningful evaluation of the estimates is to show the changes to the previous results and to come closer to a common assessment as the data basis improves. It is more about the basic direction than the details.
