IGC estimates global grain supply slightly better

IGC estimates global grain production in 2025/26 just above consumption

In its end-of-June issue, the International Grains Council (IGC) put global grain supply in 2025-26 at a slightly higher level compared to the previous month. At 2,377 million tons, production is forecast to be slightly higher than consumption at 2,373 million tons. Accordingly, a moderate increase in stocks is expected. Nevertheless, the supply figure of 24.7% final stocks to consumption remains at a low level compared to the previous 10 years.

The IGC estimates global wheat production at just under 808 million tons, significantly higher than the previous year's figure of just under 800 million tons. The decisive share of production growth will take place in the EU 27 with an increase of +18 million tons, while the wheat harvest in Russia will fall to 81 million tons. However, global consumption is expected to rise to around 814 million tons. As a result, stocks are expected to fall to just 264 million tons (previous year: 270 million tons). This should give prices a boost.

The IGC forecasts global maize production of 1,276 million tons, significantly higher than the previous year's figure of just 1,225 million tons. Significant increases in production are predicted in the USA, Argentina, Brazil and the EU due to the expansion of cultivation areas. The IGC estimates global consumption at 1,268.5 million tons and therefore assumes that final stocks will increase noticeably. This will keep prices in check.

The other grain markets (rye, triticale, oats, etc.) are estimated to be relatively balanced with a combined production of 293.7 million tons and consumption of 292.5 million tons.

Even if geopolitical events such as the war in Ukraine, the Middle East conflict and US customs policy repeatedly cause short-term disruptions in global market and price developments, the fundamental supply figures still provide the basis for an average price level that is based on the relative scarcity compared to previous years.

Comparison of estimated results: