New IGC grain and oilseed estimate of August 30, 2013
The International Grains Council's latest estimate of global grain production is 1,929 million tons (previous year: 1,789 million tons and 1,851 million tons). Compared to the previous month's estimate, the result is 9 million tons higher.
Grain consumption in 2013/14 is expected to amount to 1,893 million tons. In conjunction with low initial stocks, stocks at the end of the grain year will increase to 365 million tons (previous year: 328 million tons). Nevertheless, the increase in stocks remains modest. The stock-to-use ratio increased from 18% to 19.2%, which is below the multi-year average of 20%.
The world wheat harvest is estimated at 691 million tons (previous year 654 million tons; previous year 695 million tons). This is 4 million tons more than the previous month's estimate. Wheat consumption is expected to be 688 million tons. Taking into account the opening stocks, this results in a closing stock of 176 million tons, which is only 2 million tons higher than the previous year. The wheat market remains just about averagely supplied.
The IGC puts the world maize harvest at 945 million tons (previous year 860 million tons, previous year 877 million tons), 3 million tons higher than in the previous month. Maize consumption is estimated at 917 million tons. Including the opening stock, an estimated closing stock of 150 million tons can be determined, which is 29 million tons higher than the previous year and amounts to over 16.3% of consumption. This would mean that the maize market would be considered averagely supplied.
The soybean estimate of 280 million tons (previous year: 269 million tons) is 4 million tons lower than in the previous month. Consumption is expected to remain essentially constant. Ending stocks will increase from 26 to 32 million tons.
