July 2025: FAO updates world grain supply.
In its latest July issue, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has updated its estimate of the world grain supply in 2025-26.
Global production (including rice) of 2,925 million tons in 2025/26 will be offset by consumption of 2,900 million tons. The difference contributes to the build-up of stocks. However, the supply figure changes only slightly to 30.3% final stocks to consumption and thus remains in the lower mid-range of previous years.
Wheat production is expected to improve by 0.9% compared to the previous year; the harvest is estimated at 805 million tons (previous year: 798 million tons). Global wheat consumption is expected to amount to 801 million tons (previous year: 795 million tons). Stocks at the end of the year are calculated to be +3 million tons higher than at the beginning of the year. Supplies remain at a good average level.
In the case of coarse grain with a focus on maize, production is expected to increase by 3.45% compared to the previous year. At +0.3%, consumption will increase less strongly. Increasing stocks can be calculated from this. However, the supply figure of 22.5% final stocks to consumption remains well below the multi-year average of 24.5%.
In the case of the rice market, the increase in production of +6 million tons is not sufficient to offset the expected increase in consumption of around 10 million tons.
International grain trade is expected to be slightly higher than in the previous year. Declining exports from Russia and Ukraine will be more than offset by increased exports from the EU, USA and South America
Overall, the FAO expects the supply situation on the global grain market in 2025/26 to be only slightly different from the previous year.
Grain prices on the leading stock exchanges show a very unstable development at a reduced level. Wheat is hovering just below the € 200/t line on the Paris stock exchange, while maize is slightly above it.
