June 2025: USDA estimates world grain supply tighter than in previous month

June 2025: USDA estimates world grain supply tighter in 2025-26 - stocks falling

In its latest June issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has once again classified the world grain supply as tighter. Although production has risen slightly to 2,359 million tons, consumption is even higher at 2,372 million tons. The result is a further reduction in stocks. The supply figure falls to 23.8% of final stocks to consumption. (previous year 24.7%),

The USDA estimates global wheat production at 808.6 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. However, global consumption is estimated to be slightly higher at just under 810 million tons. As a result, stocks will fall to 262 million tons (previous year: 264 million tons).

China (142 million tons), the EU (136.5 million tons), India (117 million tons) and Russia (83 million tons) together produce around 60% of the world wheat harvest.

Trade: In terms of exports, Russia is ahead of the EU with 45 million tons (34.5 million tons); the USA is in 3rd place with 22.5 million tons. On the import side, the North African Mediterranean countries are in first place with a total of 32 million tons, mainly from Egypt, followed by the Southeast Asian countries with around 31 million tons. The comparatively short transport route from Russia to North Africa, combined with low Russian prices, favors sales there; the EU is losing competitiveness due to the high euro exchange rate.

The USDA estimates global maize production at 1,266 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. However, consumption is estimated to be slightly higher at 1,276 million tons. In this case, too, stocks are expected to fall from last year's 285 million tons to this year's 275 million tons.

A record harvest of 402 million tons is expected in the USA. (previous year 378 million tons). In China, it remains almost unchanged at 295 million tons. The Brazilian harvest will increase to 131 million tons. EU maize productionis estimated at 60 million tons. These 4 countries together produce around 70 % of maize.

Trade: The USA is the leading exporter with a share of around 35 %, followed by Brazil with 22 % and Argentina in 3rd place with around 19 %. Ukraine has a share of 12%. On the import side , Mexico is in first place with 25 million tons. This is followed by the Southeast Asian countries with around 21 million tons. The EU is expected to import 20.5 million tons of maize this year.

Production (284 million tons) and consumption (286 million tons) of the remaining cereals are close to each other.

Comparison of development estimates

Despite different survey and evaluation methods, the supply figures show a downward trend that is close together