June 2025: MARS estimates EU grain yields +1% higher than in May
In its June 25 issue, the EU Commission's Agricultural Meteorological Institute (MARS) has revised its yield estimates for the 2025 harvest upwards by 1% compared to the May forecast. This is based on the evaluation of climate data up to June 14. The results will be incorporated into the upcoming EU COM harvest estimate.
Overall grain yields were classified as +1% higher than in the previous month and are now 6% above the 5-year average.
The yields per hectare for wheat are also estimated to be higher by the same amount in a comparison of the previous month and several years. This is due to the comparatively more favorable than expected climate data. In Spain, yields are expected to be +25 % above the 5-year average due to very favorable moisture conditions. This is also expected for Romania. In France, the largest growing region, yields are forecast to increase by only +3 % compared to the 5-year average.
Germany, Poland and Slovenia are expected to see weaker harvests in a multi-year comparison. Compared to the May forecast, yield expectations have been reduced by around -1 to 2 %.
The EU average winter barley yields were increased by a further +2 % compared to the previous month's estimate and are therefore +10 % above the 5-year average. Here too, yields on the Iberian peninsula stand out with increases of +22 %, in France (+17 %), the Netherlands (+8 %) and Belgium (28 %) due to the favorable site conditions compared to the very weak previous year. Spring barley also achieved above-average yields in the central growing regions.
Rye and triticale are estimated to be unchanged in the EU average compared to the previous month, but remain within the multi-year average range. Higher yields are expected in Finland, the Baltic states, the Czech Republic, Austria and Spain. In Germany and Denmark, yield forecasts have been lowered slightly.
For K. maize, MARS estimates unchanged area yields compared to the previous month. However, the level is around 5% above the 5-year average. Rising values are forecast for Romania, Bulgaria and Italy. The forecasts for Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and Hungary have been reduced slightly compared to the previous month.
EU rapeseed yields are rated higher again on average in the EU. Yield increases are expected in the Baltic countries, Bulgaria, Romania and Spain. In contrast, yields per hectare in Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Austria and Italy have been reduced.
The overall trend towards better yield prospects on average in the EU is made up of very different results in the individual growing regions. This is due to very different regional climatic conditions with a focus on the last 3 months. Changes are also to be expected in the coming period, particularly for late-ripening fruit.
