Market analysis & forecasts - December 22, 2025
Wheat
Weekly market development
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USDA / WASDE & Exports: Global wheat stocks and ending stocks were recently revised upwards, mainly due to higher harvests in Canada, Argentina, the EU and Russia. The US producer price remained unchanged.
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Price movement: US wheat futures trended weaker last week, especially KC wheat. Internationally, the high exportable supply is weighing on prices.
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EU signals: EU wheat exports are below the previous year's level; initial acreage estimates for 2026 indicate slightly lower acreage.
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Black Sea region: Russia continues to export high volumes; the weekly variable export tax remains a key market signal.
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USA: falling to stable
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EU: stable with slight downward pressure
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Black Sea influence: clearly bearish for EU pricing
2-4 week outlook:
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Sideways to slightly weaker as long as international export competition continues and global stocks remain high.
Corn
Weekly market development
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US exports: US corn export commitments are well above the previous year (≈ +30%),
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Futures: Corn futures recently fell slightly, but remained well supported overall.
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Demand: US ethanol production remains high; inventories continue to draw down.
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EU & Black Sea: Ukrainian corn harvest was lower, stabilizing EU import demand.
Trend:
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USA: stable to slightly rising (fundamental)
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EU: stable
2-4 week outlook:
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Sideways to slightly firmer, supported by export momentum and bioethanol demand.
Crude oil
Weekly market development
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Prices: Crude oil recently moved sideways to slightly weaker
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Inventories: Slight reduction in crude oil inventories, but product inventories remain high.
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Geopolitics: Individual supportive impulses (e.g. Venezuela issue), but no sustainable trend.
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Outlook energy agencies: Expectation of oversupply at the beginning of 2026.
Trend:
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Stable to slightly falling
2-4 week outlook:
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Sideways to slightly weaker, provided there are no geopolitical escalations.
