1) Wheat
Trend (short-term 2-4 weeks): stable → slightly falling
Price range (2-4 weeks): Euronext 195-200 €/t; CME SRW 5.20-5.50 $/bu
Key data & justification
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WASDE Aug. 2025: Global wheat ending stocks lowered further; USDA cites 260.1 mn t as lowest level since 2015/16. This keeps the market risk premium elevated, but production remains sufficient, so immediate price pressure is limited.
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US export sales: Solid new contracts recently - weekly net sales support the floor, but without creating a clear upward trend.
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EU: The EU Commission recently confirmed weaker monthly dynamics (milling wheat -2 % m/m; maize -4.6 % m/m) - this fits in with a sideways/slight downward trend in Europe.
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Order flow/futures: Activity in SRW increasing, open interest recently declining - indication of position adjustment, not trend change.
Brief conclusion on wheat: Fundamentally no "bull trigger" visible; bottoming possible, but rallies likely to remain capped at resistances (e.g. 200-203 €/t Matif).
2) Maize / Corn
Trend (short-term 2-4 weeks): slightly falling (with rebound risk in case of weather/FX)
Price range (2-4 weeks): CME $4.00-4.30/bu; EU €180-190/t
Key data & justification
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WASDE Aug. 2025: USDA raises US corn picture significantly (higher supplies, domestic use, exports and ending stocks). Larger ending stocks expected for 2025/26 - dampening prices in the short term.
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Market reaction & assessments: Industry reports talk of record crop/record yield assumptions; DTN/Progressive Farmer puts crop at ~16.7bn bu, with record yield assumptions under discussion - bearish environment.
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Export side: USDA raises US corn exports 25/26 significantly (towards record), but large supplies dominate pricing for now.
Short summary corn: production and inventory story overlay demand - bias bearish; interim rallies are more likely tactical selling opportunities.
3) Crude oil (Brent/WTI)
Trend (short-term 2-4 weeks): stable → slightly falling
Price range (2-4 weeks): Brent 64-70 $/bbl (volatility increased)
Key data & rationale
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EIA STEO (Aug): EIA expects significantly lower Brent averages towards $60/bbl in Q4/2025 - dampening energy and biofuel prices in the near/medium term.
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Weekly inventory data (EIA): latest report shows high refinery utilization (≈ 96.9%) and inventories at levels around/below 5-year average; API recently reported a build. On balance: no bullish shortage visible.
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Spot/forward curves: Reuters reports sideways to weaker ahead of inventory data; prices around 66/63 $ for Brent/WTI.
Summary crude oil: macro bias slightly bearish (supply overhang, weaker demand impulses) → agricultural cost side (logistics/energy) rather neutral to relieving.
5) Stocks & exports - compressed
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Wheat (global): Ending stocks 260.1 million tons (WASDE Aug) - low since 2015/16, but without immediate supply stress.
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Corn (US): supply/stock build 25/26; export assumptions for 25/26 up (near record).
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Soybeans (US): processing high, ending stocks lower than expected - slightly supportive for oils/meals.
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EU (grain prices): Weaker month-on-month; confirmed sideways/bearish for EU corn/wheat.
