Market analysis & forecasts (WASDE probably canceled)
Wheat
Latest trend: slightly falling to stable
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The IGC is forecasting higher grain production for 2025/26, including wheat, which will increase supply pressure.
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Global stocks (carryovers) are estimated by the IGC to increase by 17 million tons to around 606 million tons, which signals an expansion of the global buffer supply.
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US side: In the September WASDE, wheat exports were revised higher while US ending stocks were reduced - the signal was slightly bullish for the export market.
Results stock/export changes:
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Global stocks rise moderately
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US wheat export forecasts raised in September WASDE
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US ending stocks for wheat slightly tightened in USDA model
2-4 week forecast (wheat):
Wheat prices are expected to be stable to slightly lower over the next 2-4 weeks, barring any external shocks (e.g., crop problems, geopolitical disruptions). The increased supply base and growing storage reserves tend to put pressure on the price. In the absence of new official USDA data, volatility could be relatively high with any surprise information.
Corn / Maize
Latest trend: moderately rising, but subdued with risk
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The IGC has revised the forecast for total grain production in 2025/26 significantly upwards, largely driven by more optimistic maize assumptions.
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USDA in September WASDE raised US corn production (due to expanded harvested area) and increased export forecasts.
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However, there are risks: Heat stress, disease pressure (e.g. Southern rust) and drought in parts of the Corn Belt are already mentioned in market commentary.
Results stock/export changes:
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Global corn stocks: slight increase forecast (IGC)
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US export estimates were raised significantly in the September WASDE
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US ending stocks for corn: raised in USDA model in certain scenarios (depending on projection assumptions)
2-4 week forecast (corn):
Despite the increase in supply, slight upward momentum or at least stable support is expected in the coming weeks, especially if field damage, disease reports or crop uncertainties occur. Without new USDA data, the market is heavily dependent on private assessments and regional signals.
Crude oil
Recent trend: slightly rising to stable
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Crude oil tends to be traded indirectly in agricultural commentary sources, but the influence of biofuels, energy prices and macroeconomic conditions remains relevant.
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The US shutdown increases uncertainty: as many USDA/NASS data are canceled or postponed, market participants have fewer points of reference.
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Should demand (e.g. for diesel, gasoline, biofuels) develop unexpectedly or geopolitical risks come to a head, crude oil could react more strongly in the short term.
2-4 week forecast (crude oil):
In view of the data uncertainty, a moderate upward movement in crude oil is expected, provided demand remains stable and no supply disruptions occur. However, a sideways phase is also possible, especially if macro data fails to materialize or uncertainty about demand dominates.
