1. regulatory environment & policy signals
CBAM remains central price driver (as at 12.02.2026)
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) of the
European Commission remains the dominant topic for all European fertilizer markets.
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Since 1 January 2026, imported fertilizers (urea, ammonia, NPK, DAP, etc.) have to be priced based on emissions.
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The first few weeks have shown that CBAM costs are noticeable, but lower than originally expected - many imports were imported before the turn of the year.
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At the same time, political steps are being prepared in several member states to enable a temporary suspension or reduction of CBAM levies for fertilizers.
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The emergency clause ("CBAM emergency brake") in accordance with Art. 27a allows suspension in the event of market disruptions - is currently being actively discussed.
2. price level & cost development
Nitrogen fertilizers (urea, AHL, KAS)
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Urea: slight price reductions since the beginning of February (-3 to -6 €/t depending on region).
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KAS/AN: largely stable, minimal corrections.
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The hoped-for strong boost from CBAM is still not materializing, as inventories from Q4/2025 are high.
Phosphates (DAP/MAP)
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Price level remains high but stable.
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Demand is subdued, which is having a dampening effect on prices.
Potash fertilizers (MOP/KCl)
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Very stable market, almost unchanged prices.
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Hardly any transaction volume in the spot sector.
3. supply & demand situation
Supply
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Slight decline in import volumes as traders wait for clearer CBAM settlement rules.
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More goods flows from North Africa and the Middle East; Russia/Belarus declining due to tariffs and political obstacles.
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European production stable - supported by lower gas prices since January.
Demand
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February is traditionally a period of restrained purchasing activity.
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Agricultural businesses are increasingly waiting:
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precisely quantified CBAM costs,
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March/April price levels,
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new energy price indications
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