1. regulatory environment & political signals

CBAM remains the dominant system factor

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) of the
European Commission
continues to have a decisive influence on European fertilizer pricing.

• Initial feedback from the industry shows that CBAM reporting obligations and CO₂ factors are more complex than expected, which is further slowing down import activity.

• In several member states (especially France, Italy and Poland), political demands for a temporary suspension of the CBAM on fertilizers are increasing in order to cushion cost increases in agriculture.

• The EU Commission continues to refer to the emergency clause (Art. 27a), but does not want to make a decision before March.

Market impact:
The uncertainty is leading to subdued trading activity, prices for farmers are high, which is why hardly any purchases are being made. This leads to stable, sometimes slightly falling prices inthe short term .

2. price level & cost development 19.02.2026

Nitrogen fertilizers (urea, KAS, AHL)

• Urea (EU import basis): slight downward correction. Typical declines: -3 to -8 €/t compared to previous week.

• KAS (CAN/AN): largely stable, minimal decline.

• AHL: constant level, hardly any movement.

Main reason:
Stocks from Q4 2025 continue to have a price-dampening effect, while demand remains moderate.

Phosphates (DAP/MAP)

• Price level remains on an elevated plateau, but without new impetus.

• Traders report slight discount negotiations, as seasonal demand only picks up more strongly from March/April.

Potash (MOP/KCl)

• Still one of the most stable fertilizer markets.

• Only slight price movements, often ±1-2 €/t per week.

Overall price picture

• No price jumps,

• no significant price declines,

• instead: quiet sideways movement at a high level.

3. supply & demand development

Supply

• Import flows remain restrained as traders have to calculate CBAM costs more precisely.

• North Africa and the Middle East remain the most important alternative suppliers to Russia/Belarus.

• European production is stable, slightly supported by lower gas prices in February.

Demand

• In week 8, the first preparations for the season can be seen among farmers, but without strong purchasing waves.

• Many farms are waiting for:

  • final CBAM cost rates,

  • March offer lists from large retailers,

  • weather-dependent fertilizer planning.

Sentiment:
Caution and a wait-and-see attitude continue to dominate. Demand will only pick up noticeably from week 10-12.

5. summary

Price level and trend

• Prices are moving sideways and downwards, but without momentum.

• The market is waiting for clear signals - especially the regulatory market structure

• The EU fertilizer market is in a phase of low liquidity because many traders are "playing for time".

• Import volumes remain low, but (still) sufficient to cover the season.

Risks

• Political intervention (CBAM suspension or tightening) can cause short-term volatility at any time.

• A possible rebound in gas prices represents the greatest external risk.

Base scenario (short-term until mid-March):

• Slightly falling nitrogen prices

• Stable to slightly falling phosphate prices

• Very stable potash

• Continued restraint among bulk buyers