Market trend 10.11.2025 market report

Wheat

Trend (current): rising
Current developments & data:

The USDA reports net export sales of ~539,800 tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, up +43% from the previous week and +37% above the 4-week average.
Weekly exports were ~896,000 tons, +16% from the previous week and +18% above the 4-week average.
According to the monthly "World Markets and Trade" report, a slight reduction in US wheat supply is forecast for 2025/26 (lower production, but higher exports and smaller ending stocks).

Forecast (2-4 weeks):

Likely to continue the uptrend or at least remain stable as exports are robust and the forecast points to lower ending stocks.
If export demand continues or even increases (e.g. from Asia, Southeast Asia or North Africa), short-term price increases could follow.
Without new demand stimuli, prices could move sideways, especially if supply or competition from other regions increases.

Trend (current): stable to slightly rising (less clearly falling)
Current developments & data:

USDA reports net export sales of approximately 1,923,400 tons for 2025/26 last week, with significant volumes to Mexico, unknown destinations, Colombia, Spain and Japan, among others.
Exports this week amounted to ~1,315,900 t, with high exports to Mexico, Japan, Colombia, Spain and Ireland.
In the monthly outlook (WASDE), USDA shows record high production projections for 2025/26: corn production significantly higher (more area + better yields).
In addition, ending stocks are raised sharply to ~2.1 billion bushels - the highest ending stocks in several years.

Forecast (2-4 weeks):

Due to the high supply situation, price pressure and/or sideways movement remain likely, even if exports are solid.
If export demand continues to grow or new buyers come in, stabilization or a slight upward trend could emerge in the short term.
Overall, however, caution is advised: supply is outstripping demand, which is keeping pressure on prices.

Trend (current): slightly rising / positive in the short term
Current developments & data:

The Barchart platform reports that crude oil futures (e.g. WTI December '25) have recently risen by +0.41 USD (approx. +0.68 %).
Further market news mentions geopolitical risks (e.g. Venezuela) and positive trading sentiment that have supported the price of crude oil.
Technical analysis shows that the price is above short-term moving averages (e.g. 14-/20-day average slightly positive, but 50-day declining).

Forecast (2-4 weeks):

In the short term, probably further upward trend or at least stable movement, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and moderate demand.
If demand from China or globally picks up again (economic recovery), prices could rise further.
On the other hand, weaker data (e.g. decline in economic activity) or inventory overhangs could flatten the upward trend and lead to sideways movement or setbacks.