Wheat
Trends:
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Ukraine's wheat export volumes in the week Nov 3-9 were reported at around 290,000 tons - significantly below the previous week (approx. 399,000 tons).
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The European Commission market overview for Russia/Ukraine continues to show relatively competitive FOB prices for wheat and corn due to export tax exemptions and changes in export duties.
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According to the market report, maize stocks in the USA are rising despite slightly reduced yields - the data for wheat is less up-to-date, but global supply remains solid.
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For the EU, competition from Black Sea wheat continues to be noticeable, putting pressure on EU wheat prices.
2-4 week forecast / outlook:
Expecting a trend of sideways to slightly downward price movement for wheat in the EU and Germany - as long as no unexpected weather-related harvest problems occur or logistical export obstacles affect Black Sea region. A short-term upward impulse remains possible if, for example, Ukrainian exports continue to slump.
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Bullish: + Potential disruptions in the Black Sea region could support EU wheat.
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Bearish: - Weak Ukrainian export volumes and strong competitive pressure from Russia/Ukraine depress prices. - Sufficient global stocks reduce short-term upside potential.
Corn
Trends:
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US market: according to the 17.11 report, US corn supplies are rising due to higher initial stocks, although production has only been reduced slightly.
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EU/Germany: EU maize production in 2025/26 is estimated to be slightly down on the previous year (e.g. -5%) according to the IGC submission.
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Black Sea region: Ukraine is currently exporting less grain, including maize; transportation/logistics problems are having a negative impact.
2-4 week forecast/forecast:
A moderate sideways movement with a slight downward trend in maize prices in the EU region seems likely. A strengthening impulse would come if US exports remain surprisingly healthy or Ukraine logistics are severely restricted.
Bullish / Bearish:
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Bullish: + Declining EU production could be a supportive factor in the medium term.
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Bearish: - Higher US initial stocks and competition from the Black Sea region weigh. - Weak Ukraine exports do not necessarily mean price support if other suppliers step in.
Crude oil
Trend (current): slightly rising, but fundamentally rather bearish
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Brent is currently trading at ~ USD 64.5/barrel (17.11.2025), around +6 % compared to a month ago, but around -12 % below the previous year's level.
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US inventories rose by +6.4 million barrels to around 427.6 million barrels in the week to November 7 - significantly more than expected by the market (≈ +2 million).
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In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA warns of a growing oversupply: a possible surplus of around 4 million barrels/day and significantly increased inventories (close to 8 billion barrels) are outlined for 2026.
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OPEC+ will increase production moderately in November/December 2025 (+137,000 bpd), but will pause further increases in the first quarter of 2026 in order to support the market.
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Summary
For this week, the following applies: For wheat and corn, slight downward or sideways trends dominate the EU/Germany market in the short term, supported by strong global supply and competition from the Black Sea region. Moderate support appears possible for the rapeseed market, mainly due to supply risks in Ukraine, but the environment remains complex.
