There is currently no new World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture or a brand new International Grains Council(IGC) Grains & Oilseeds edition beyond the most recently available editions.The following trends are produced without these reports:
Wheat
Current trend: stable to slightly down.
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CBOT wheat (Dec 25) trending sideways with slight weekly gains; winter wheat trying to bottom out. Euronext wheat remains subdued.
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EU side: EU raised 2025/26 soft wheat production to a 10-year high of ~132.6m tons. Actual exports, however, weak at the start of the season: only 4.01 million tons of soft wheat (-31 % y/y) by 14.09. This explains the lack of price growth despite a larger harvest.
2-4 week forecast: slightly falling / sideways.
High global supplies (EU, Black Sea) and subdued EU exports suggest pressure; counter-movements possible if tenders (NA/North Africa) are surprisingly large.
Stocks/exports - notable changes:
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EU Cereals balance sheet 2025/26 signals higher production (total EU cereals +7.3m tons vs. Aug estimate) and subdued early exports.
Maize (Corn)
Current trend: falling.
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Dec 25 corn with Oct average around $4.18/bu - lower than Feb pricing; crop pressure and large US supply dominate.
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EU IGC section shows very strong US corn supply in 2025/26; EU corn production moderately lower vs. 2024/25 estimate.
2-4-week forecast: further slight decline, with stabilization trend following harvest progress or export impulses (US Gulf). Low inland shipping fluctuations in the US may influence basis/flows in the short term.
Stocks/exports - notable changes:
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IGC/EC material globally points to comfortable 2025/26 corn availability; EU trade data at start of season remains subdued.
Rapeseed / Canola
Current trend: stable to slightly falling.
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ICE canola (Nov 25) recently traded around ~613-617 CAD/t and is well below the summer highs; Euronext rapeseed fluctuates around ~460-470 €/t (closing prices mid-October).
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EU reports: rapeseed imports/oil flows remain important; EU remains net importer of oilseeds. (Oilseeds Dashboard / USDA Oilseeds World Markets & Trade).
2-4 week forecast: sideways with a slight upward chance.
Rapeseed often picks up impulses from energy/oil and vegetable oil markets; technical recoveries are possible if crude oil stabilizes or the vegetable oil complex strengthens.
Stocks/exports - notable changes:
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EU oilseed dashboard continues to signal high import dependence; global oilseed reports (USDA) show solid supplies, limiting price premiums.
Crude oil (Brent/WTI) - relevant environment factor for agricultural prices
Current trend: falling.
Brent recently fell towards ~61 $/bbl (5-month low) amid overhang concerns (IEA) and macro risks (US-China tensions).
2-4 week forecast: sideways to slightly falling.
As long as overhang narrative and demand concerns dominate, dips remain possible; counter-risk: short-term geopolitical disruptions.
Relevance for rapeseed/oilseed: Weaker oil dampens biodiesel/vegetable oil complex - short-term headwind for rapeseed/canola.
Summary (2-4 weeks)
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Wheat: stable → slightly falling (strong supply, weak EU export start).
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Corn: falling (harvest pressure/comfortable supply).
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Crude oil: falling/sideways (overhang story).
