Market analysis - 22.09.2025
Wheat, maize and rapeseed (Euronext)
Current development
The most important agricultural commodities on Euronext closed weaker on Friday evening. Wheat, corn and rapeseed suffered from profit-taking. However, the technical support zones remain intact:
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Wheat (December 2025): €189-190/t
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Corn (November 2025): 185-196 €/t
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Rapeseed (November 2025): over 470 €/t
The European markets continue to be caught between technical factors, high volatility in the euro/dollar exchange rate, ample supply and strong competition from the Black Sea region.
Fundamental situation - maize in France
According to FranceAgriMer, 93% of French maize stocks already reached a moisture content of 50% on September 15. This is well above the five-year average of 80 % and significantly above the 60 % of the previous year.
The harvest, on the other hand, is progressing slowly: only 5 % of the areas have been harvested so far (five-year average: 6 %). Many farmers are deliberately waiting to take advantage of the natural drying process in the field.
Bullish factors
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Support zones for wheat, maize and rapeseed continue to hold.
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Delayed maize harvest in France could tighten available supply in the short term.
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Euro/dollar volatility may improve export opportunities for EU grain.
Bearish factors
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Continued high global supply, especially from the Black Sea region.
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Profit-taking is weighing on sentiment on the futures markets.
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Technically dominated markets with a sensitive reaction to price fluctuations.
Forecast / trend
In the short term, the markets are likely to trend sideways as long as the support zones hold. In the medium term, oversupply will remain a negative factor, while weather-related delays in France and the currency situation could provide temporary upward momentum.
