Market analysis - 29.09.2025

Wheat

Current situation:
- EU exports of common wheat are approx. 35% below the previous year.
- Germany: Producer prices sideways to slightly weaker
Trend: stable to slightly falling in the EU, stable in export regions.
2-4 week forecast: Sideways to slightly rising if export demand increases or weather-related restrictions occur.
Bullish: Stronger import demand from North Africa/Asia, possible quality problems with competing suppliers (Russia, Ukraine), weather risks.
Bearish: Very good harvests in the EU, Australia and Russia; higher global ending stocks; weak EU export competition.

Current situation:
- EU Commission lowered harvest forecast (drought in south-eastern Europe).
- EU import demand increases (18.8 million tons vs. >20 million tons in the previous year).
- Demand from feed sector in DE/AT restrained.
Trend: stable, slightly firmer locally.
2-4 week forecast: Stable to slightly rising, depending on harvest and imports.
Bullish: Decline in EU harvest, strong US exports, weather-related yield risks.
Bearish: Very high US production (record acreage), rising global stocks, weak European demand in the feed sector.

Current situation:
- Sideways around mid USD 80/bbl.
- Global supply situation balanced, inventories stable.
Trend: stable.
2-4 weeks forecast: Stable to volatile sideways; geopolitical events may provide short-term impetus.
Bullish: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, falling US inventories, strong Asian demand.
Bearish: High OPEC+ production quotas, weak economic outlook in EU/China, rising non-OPEC production (USA, Brazil).