Market trend - Fertilizer middle market

Market data analysis & forecasts - Fertilizer market Europe (as at the beginning of November 2025)

European fertilizer prices have once again shown a marked upward trend since the beginning of 2025 - particularly for phosphate and nitrogen products.
At the same time, new import duties and levies imposed by the European Commission (EU) on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers as well as higher energy/gas costs are creating additional tensions in supply.
The longer-term market outlook remains moderately growing, with annual growth rates in the mid-single-digit percentage range (depending on the source) - albeit with pronounced uncertainty due to geopolitical and energy-related factors.

From 1 July 2025, customs duties will apply to certain fertilizer imports from Russia/Belarus in addition to the regular customs duty: e.g. 6.5% ad valorem plus around €40-45/t for urea (urea), ammonium nitrate (AN), etc.; successive increase up to around €315-430/t by 2028.
As a result, Russian imports of certain nitrogen fertilizers into the EU fell significantly in July/August (e.g. a reduction to around a third of the previous months) - data from ICIS speaks of a "significant" reduction.
Import pressure is shifting more towards North Africa (e.g. Egypt, Algeria) and local production in the EU, but this cannot be sufficiently compensated for in the medium term.

According to World Bank data, fertilizer prices worldwide rose by around 21% in 2025 compared to the previous year - up to +41% for DAP (diammonium phosphate), for example, and up to +36% for urea.
Europe is feeling the effects of this development: higher input costs (gas, electricity, raw materials) and regulatory cost burdens are translating into higher product prices for farmers.
However, the consumption trend remains moderate: according to one source, the EU fertilizer consumption volume grew by only around 1.3% to ~64 million tonnes in 2024, with the market volume estimated at around US$ 29.3 billion.

Segment	Observation
Nitrogen fertilizers	High volatility, strongly driven by gas prices and trade restrictions.
Phosphate fertilizers	Particularly sharp price increases (+ 30-40 % compared to previous year)
Potassium fertilizer (MOP)	Moderate increase, but impact of trade restrictions noticeable
Sustainable/organic fertilizers	Growth potential available, but currently still a small share of the market
Geographical focus	Germany, France, Poland dominate consumption within the EU IndexBox

Increased price pressure due to new tariffs and duties on imports from Russia/Belarus causing supply shortages in Europe.
Higher energy and gas costs could further increase producer prices.
Sustainability and decarbonization pressure (e.g. from CBAM) could encourage investment in Europe and strengthen domestic supply.

New capacities or import alternatives (e.g. North Africa, Middle East) could put pressure on prices in the medium term.
Weak agricultural margins could increase the elasticity of demand - farmers could save money if fertilizer prices are high.
Regulatory restrictions for conventional fertilizers (e.g. Nitrates Directive) could limit or shift market volumes.

Short term (0-12 months): Europe should expect further increased prices and increased volatility. For farmers, this means that early budgeting and stockpiling is advisable.
Medium-term (1-3 years): Market remains moderately growing; producers in Europe could benefit from import restrictions, but only if cost structure remains sustainable.
Long term (until 2030+): Sustainable fertilizer technologies (organic, precise dosing) gain in importance. Overall market value increases, but growth rate remains moderate - estimates assume approx. +2-3 % per year. Renub+1