Wheat - Fundamental oversupply meets short-term stabilization
The global wheat balance sheet remains structurally oversupplied, as global ending stocks remain at a high level and thus secure physical supplies. At the same time, a slight increase in global trade is only providing limited demand stimulus.
Although global ending stocks were reduced slightly in the February WASDE, they remain at a five-year high of around 277.5 million tons, reflecting structurally high availability among all major exporters.
At the same time, global trade is increasing slightly, partly due to strong deliveries from Argentina and Canada, which are compensating for weaker EU exports.
On the supply side, the picture thus remains clearly supply-heavy despite minor corrections. This assessment is also supported by the IGC forecast of a global grain harvest close to record levels and rising stocks, which could grow significantly again after several years of depletion.
Although prices are showing signs of recovery in the short term - wheat has recently risen compared to the previous day and is also higher month-on-month - the market is still trading below the previous year's level and the models expect prices to remain lower until the end of the quarter.
Classification:
The fundamental situation clearly favors a sideways to slightly weak price trend. Short-term price peaks remain possible, but are likely to be limited by the high global supply.
Short-term price trend (last 1-2 days):
-
Euronext Paris: Wheat rose moderately on February 12 (e.g. March 2026 to around €192/t, +1.75 €/t).
-
CBOT Chicago: Wheat was slightly weaker in pre-market trading (approx. -1 cent), indicating a lack of impetus.
-
In addition, rising trading activity coupled with falling open interest in CBOT-SRW wheat indicates position adjustment instead of new bullish demand.
Corn - export-driven firmness also confirmed in day-to-day trading
The corn market remains fundamentally tighter than wheat, mainly due to robust export demand and falling US ending stocks. The February WASDE highlights in particular the robust export momentum: US exports are being lifted while ending stocks are falling.
Globally, too, there are only minor changes in supply, meaning that stronger demand is the key price driver.
This pattern - tighter supply coupled with stable demand - was already visible in previous WASDE revisions and repeatedly confirmed a structurally tighter foundation in the corn market compared to wheat.
Classification:
Corn remains the relatively strongest grain market. The combination of falling US ending stocks and continued good export demand suggests a stable to moderately rising price trend in the coming weeks, as long as there is no significant weakening in demand.
Short-term price trend:
-
Euronext: Corn also recorded slight daily gains (e.g. March 2026 around 190.5 €/t, +0.75 €/t).
-
CBOT: Slight pre-market decline of around -1 cent, but with significantly increased trading activity and growing open interest - a sign of sustained market interest.
