According to the latest EU-MARS bulletin, several member states are benefiting from favorable weather conditions and achieving above-average yields per hectare in winter crops. This applies in particular to Romania, Bulgaria, France, Spain, Ireland and the northern and Baltic countries. Winter yields are also expected to be above the five-year average in Austria - with the exception of winter rapeseed, where yields are likely to be slightly below average.
For Germany, Poland and Hungary, EU agricultural meteorologists are forecasting yields per hectare in line with the long-term average. In contrast, heat and drought have noticeably reduced yield expectations for Italy.
In south-eastern Europe - especially in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria - the persistent drought is having an increasingly negative impact on the yield potential of summer crops. Similar trends can be seen in several other EU member states, where the prospects for summer crops have also weakened.
In southern Germany, particularly between Rhineland-Palatinate and Bavaria, the increasing infestation with Stolbur disease, which is transmitted by cicadas, is causing concern - especially in row crops such as sugar beet and potatoes. In parts of Finland and Estonia , persistent heavy rainfall is leading to increased disease pressure locally.
Situation in neighboring regions
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Turkey: Drought is affecting winter cereal yields.
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Ukraine: In the south, a persistent rainfall deficit is slowing down the development of summer crops; in the east, dry spring conditions have already reduced winter crop yields.
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Maghreb region: Heat and drought are leading to significantly weaker harvest results.
Conclusion: These developments highlight the increasing dependence of European agriculture on the weather and underline the regional spread in yield potential - a key factor for market forecasts in the coming months.
