MARS - above-average winter temperatures with limited precipitation
The EU Commission's agrometeorological institute (MARS) has evaluated the climate data in Europe for the period from Dec. 1, 2024 to Feb. 18, 2025. The average long-term temperatures and precipitation for the years 1991 to 2024 are used as a benchmark.
The European average shows above-average temperatures, but less precipitation. The vegetation shows good stand development without significant winter damage. The various cold periods were sufficient to achieve protective frost resistance in cereals in large parts of Europe.
However, there are some regional differences.
A significant precipitation deficit was observed in most parts of Poland, eastern Lithuania, eastern Czech Republic, Slovakia, most parts of Austria and Hungary as well as in western Romania. This also applies to the eastern, western and northernmost regions of Ukraine, parts of central and eastern Turkey, southern Spain and most parts of Morocco, with significant yield losses in some cases.
In most of these regions, precipitation totals were up to 30 mm, which is between 50 % and 100 % below the long-term values. In several of these regions, the reporting period was one of the three driest in our records since 1991, as precipitation exceeded the 5 mm daily precipitation threshold on only up to 3 days.
A clear precipitation surplus was observed in southern Italy (Sardinia and parts of Sicily) and northern Tunisia as well as in parts of the Baltic states. In many of these regions, the precipitation totals exceeded the long-term values by up to 150 %. In the Italian regions, more than 15 days with precipitation above the 5 mm daily precipitation limit were observed, with over 250 mm of precipitation accumulating.
A notable temperature excess was observed in the eastern regions of Ukraine, where average daily temperatures exceeded long-term averages by up to 4 °C and the reporting period was one of the three warmest since 1991.
Cold spells were observed in Ireland, parts of France and regionally in eastern Turkey. In these regions, average daily temperatures were up to 1 °C below average, while cold spells with minimum daily temperatures between - 5 °C and - 10 °C (up to - 15 °C in eastern Turkey) occurred during the reporting period.
The weather forecast for March-April 2025 indicates a moderate probability of warm conditions, exceeding the 24-year average by up to 1 °C across Europe and even by up to 2 °C in the Eastern European regions in March. Precipitation is forecast to be up to 50 mm below average for parts of France in March-April, albeit with great uncertainty.
