MARS estimates EU area yields in 2025 slightly above 5-year average
In its May edition, the EU Commission's agrometeorological institute (MARS) updated yield expectations in the EU based on regional weather data.
The spring of 2025 was characterized by a strong precipitation deficit in northwestern Europe. The Benelux countries, northern France, Germany, western and southern Poland and Sweden experienced one of the driest springs since weather records began. This has raised concerns about yield expectations, particularly for winter and spring crops, while the actual effects have so far only been observed locally.
In Germany , the negative effects on harvests have not yet been significant. However, they are likely to become more pronounced in the coming weeks, as soil water is expected to remain insufficient, especially in the north.
The Iberian Peninsula, Italy and Greece benefited from abundant rainfall, leading to positive yield expectations, particularly in Spain and Portugal, where yields are expected to be 15-20% above the five-year average.
Sufficient rainfall allayed the concerns expressed in the April forecast for Bulgaria and Romania.
The sowing of grain maize, soybeans and spring barley is largely complete across Europe, although it was initially delayed in Portugal and northern Spain due to excessive rainfall.
Actual effects lead to below-average yield expectations for eastern Ukraine, Turkey, the western Maghreb and Cyprus.
The EU average yields per hectare are largely offset by the contrasting conditions in the individual regions. There are no significant changes compared to the previous month's estimate in April 2025.
When compared to the 5-year average, the expected yields for the 2025 harvest are expected to tend to be higher. However, the weather conditions in the coming month of June will once again play a decisive role in yield formation. The remaining months will also be decisive for the fall crops.
