May 2025: IGC with only a small correction to world grain supply 2025/26

May 2025: IGC updates world grain estimate 2025/26

In its latest May 25 estimate, the International Grains Council (IGC) has increased global grain production insignificantly compared to the previous month to 2,375 million tons. Global consumption is also reduced insignificantly to 2,372 million tons. Ending stocks are calculated at 585 million tons (previous year 581 million tons). The supply figure rises slightly to 24.6% final stocks to consumption. Compared to the previous year (24.7%), the world grain supply in 2025/26 will therefore remain just as tight as this year.

Excluding China, the supply is significantly tighter at 14.1% (previous year: 14.8%). Despite high stocks, China is not making any grain available for the world market.

The IGC estimates global wheat production at around 806 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. (The previous year was 799 million tons)

At 813 million tons, wheat consumption is estimated to be slightly higher than the previous year's figure of 802 million tons. As a result, stocks will fall year-on-year from 269 to 262 million tons.

The IGC now estimates global maize production at around 1,277 million tons, slightly higher than in the previous month. Consumption of 1,268 million tons was estimated to be almost unchanged. This results in a final stock level of 284 million tons (previous year 275 million tons). The supply figure falls to 22.4% of final stocks to consumption and is therefore below the average of recent years.

The remaining grain volume is forecast at a slightly reduced 292 million tons of production and a likewise declining 291 million tons of consumption.

Comparison of estimated results

Taking into account different survey and evaluation methods, the results of the estimation institutions are comparatively close to each other within a small estimation error range.