EU Commission estimates EU harvest at 298 million tons.
The EU Commission's latest estimate of the 2013/14 grain balance has been revised slightly downwards. The harvest result including Croatia is now estimated to be slightly below 300 million tons. If the Croatia effect is deducted, the result is around 295 million tons. Measured against multi-year averages, this is a good average harvest. The downgraded result is due to the weaker maize harvest, which is estimated at only 66 million tons.
Looking at the overall grain balance, it can be seen that the EU-28 remains a net exporter of grain. Reduced imports of just under 13 million tons (previous year: 17 million tons) are offset by exports of 26 million tons (previous year: 32 million tons). The reduced imports are a result of the increase in own production. The decline in exports is due to the fact that the Black Sea region is able to provide significantly larger export volumes at favorable prices this year and the North African importing countries have lower import requirements.
The consumption figures for human consumption, feed consumption and industrial use are within the usual narrow range of a few million tons.
With an increase in ending stocks from 27 to 38 million tons, average values for several years are once again achieved. The final stock to consumption ratio is calculated at 13.8%, indicating a good average supply in the EU.
As far as pricing is concerned, the export-oriented EU remains dependent on developments on the global grain market. Prices are largely determined by the ratio of the export potential of the major exporting countries of the USA, the Black Sea region and the EU-28 to the import requirements of the importing countries in North Africa and the Middle East.
Pricing is currently focused on the possible outcome of the US maize harvest, which is in the final ripening phase and is still subject to uncertain weather developments.
