After Ukraine, Russia now also has sowing problems
Prolonged rainfall during the fall sowing season has prevented Russian agriculture from sowing the planned 16 million hectares of winter crops. According to SovEcon, an influential group of experts, only around 7.3 million hectares will have been sown by the end of September 2013. This result is even worse than the 8.4 million hectares reported in September 2010.
The time frame for winter sowing is much shorter in Russia than in Europe because the crops must have developed sufficiently for the harsh winter with extreme frost temperatures if they are to survive the winter. For some regions, time has already run out, for others there is little room for maneuver. Ultimately, it is estimated that around 3 million hectares will definitely not be able to be planted.
The uncultivated areas will be sown with summer cereals in spring, but with a significantly lower yield potential because, among other things, the winter moisture cannot be utilized as well. In addition to barley, maize is increasingly being grown, but under continental climate conditions.
Russian agriculture, which is primarily focused on wheat, is already struggling with below-average quality in this year's harvest due to the high rainfall. The prospects for the coming harvest do not look good. Provisions will have to be made for the expected short supply situation. In Russia, grain is usually bought up by the state and stored in so-called intervention warehouses. These quantities are then not available for export. The price level is rising.
The previous figures of above-average export volumes from the Black Sea region will have to be revised downwards in the next supply estimates of the leading institutions. Russia is already falling short of its export volumes.
The International Grain Council's (IGC) estimate of above-average wheat acreage for the 2014 harvest also needs to be corrected from the Black Sea region's perspective. However, the winter wheat sowing in the USA is just as favorable as in the EU. The extent to which a balance can be expected here cannot yet be assessed with certainty.
