What is the real situation in the Russian grain-growing regions?
Officials are giving an above-average assessment of the coming Russian grain harvest. There is talk of 95 million tons compared to the previous year's 76 million tons. The previous peak result was 105 million tons.
However, the weather maps and the fact that threshing will start at least 14 days earlier than usual indicate a critical harvest situation. In the southern provinces to the left and right of the Volga, there was a pronounced drought in May, which forced the plants to ripen prematurely. Grain development did not take place to a sufficient extent, so that a lot of small-grain goods with a low hectoliter weight can be expected.
In the next 14 days, the weather forecast shows no more rain fronts over the main areas of Russian wheat cultivation. Possibly good for an undisturbed harvest, but possibly also unfavorable for the further grain filling phase. Not all crops are ready for harvest yet, as spring has also arrived late.
It is still too early to make a final judgment, but we will have to keep a close eye on the threshing results in these regions. After all, this is an area that makes a significant contribution to the global wheat supply and will also be a direct competitor to EU exports.
