Estimates by the Grain Producers Association and the state government differ by 15 and 20 million tons.
The Association of Russian Grain Producers estimates the Russian grain harvest at only 75 to 80 million tons. This estimate is in stark contrast to government forecasts, which currently stand at 95 million tons, although it is acknowledged that there has been regional drought damage.
There is drought damage in parts of the central and Volga region, in the southern district with a focus on winter wheat and the growing areas in southern Siberia with a focus on spring wheat.
The government estimates that the wheat harvest will still exceed 50 million tons. The producers' association estimates a figure of 45 to 48 million tons.
Grain prices in Russia have fallen sharply due to the high harvest expectations. This is favorable for international exports, which have just got off to a brisk start. However, if further supplies fail to materialize to some extent, rising prices and declining competitiveness will have to be expected. The government intervention purchases that began in September 2013 to replenish the depleted reserve stocks are likely to further accelerate the upward price trend.
With regard to the global market situation, a significant drop in Russian exports will have a double effect. In addition to the shortage of trade volume, a supplier with a very low price level would drop out of the race. This would quickly change the direction of the current price decline. However, the estimates are still shrouded in a dense fog of opinions, interests and very few hard facts.
