USDA: 1st forecast for the world grain market 2025/26
In its 1st forecast for the global grain market in 2025/26, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates a total harvest of 2,358 million tons compared to 2,295 million tons at the end of the previous year. Consumption is not expected to increase quite as much from 2,336 to 2,375 million tons. This means that the global reduction in stocks that has been observed for around 10 years is continuing. The estimate shows a year-on-year reduction of around 10 million tons to 571 million tons. The supply figure slips further to 24.1 % final stock to consumption; excluding China, it is only 14.3 %. The highest figure was once just under 31%:
Global wheat production rises to 808.5 million tons (previous year just under 800 million tons). Higher harvests are expected above all in the EU (+14 million tons), India (+4 million tons), China (+2 million tons), Russia (+2 million tons) and Argentina (+1.5 million tons). On the other hand, significant reductions are expected in Australia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Iran and a number of smaller production regions.
Global wheat consumption is estimated at 808 million tons (previous year: 803.6 million tons). In purely mathematical terms, this means that demand has been met. Although the low supply level of 265 million tons will be maintained in terms of volume, the supply situation will become more crisis-prone in relation to rising consumption.
Global maize production is estimated at around 1,265 million tons (previous year: 1,221 million tons). The USA in particular contributed to this increase with growth of almost 24 million tons to a total of 402 million tons. For reasons of price relations, the higher area under cultivation at the expense of the soybean area contributed significantly to this. The remaining maize harvests in other production regions, with the exception of Canada, are also expected to be slightly higher.
Global corn use is estimated at 1,274 million tons (previous year: 1,250 million tons).
In contrast to the wheat harvest, the estimate for maize is much more susceptible to risk, as it is essentially based on the area under cultivation for the time being. Stocks are expected to fall significantly, particularly in China with a reduction of around 16 million tons or -8%.
Production of just under 285 million tons and consumption of 287 million tons are assumed for the remaining types of grain.
When comparing the previous estimates of other institutions, it is striking that the FAO only expects a wheat harvest of 795 million tons at the beginning of May, while the IGCforecasts a wheat harvest of 806 million tons and a corn harvest of 1,274 million tons inApril 2025.
