The USDA has lowered its forecasts for global wheat and corn ending stocks in 2025/26. The EU is particularly affected, where ending stocks remain tight despite higher production and lower imports. Global wheat exports are falling slightly, with exports from the EU and Ukraine declining, while Russia is increasing its export forecast. Overall, the supply situation remains tight, with final stocks close to consumption levels.
Despite the wheat export forecast for the EU being lowered by 2.0 million tons to 32.5 million tons compared to the previous month - which nevertheless represents an increase of 6.0 million tons compared to 2024/25 - the EU final stock forecast is also reduced by 0.3 million tons to 12.61 million tons. This corresponds to only 8.8% of the forecast consumption and indicates a tight supply situation.
The adjustment of the EU wheat balance is based on an increase in production by 0.7 million tons to 137.25 million tons (+15.13 million tons compared to the previous year) and a significant reduction in wheat imports by 3.0 million tons to 6.5 million tons (-4.2 million tons compared to 2024/25).
In a monthly comparison, the global wheat balance was influenced by a reduction in opening stocks of 0.39 million tons to 263.59 million tons, a slight reduction in production of 0.04 million tons to 808.55 million tons (+8.63 million tons compared to the previous year) and an increase in consumption of 0.82 million tons to 810.62 million tons (+5.14 million tons compared to the previous year).
Harvest declines in Canada, Ukraine and Iran were more than offset by higher yields in the EU, Russia, Kazakhstan and Pakistan.
The global wheat export forecast was lowered by 1.27 million tons to 213.06 million tons (+6.47 million tons compared to the previous year). This is mainly due to a reduction in exports from the EU (-2.0 million tons) and Ukraine (-1.0 million tons to 15.5 million tons, -0.4 million tons compared to the previous year). In contrast, export expectations for Russia were increased by 1.0 million tons to 46.0 million tons (+3.0 million tons compared to the previous year).
