US corn-soya stocks in good shape - speculation on above-average yields and further price reduction potential and
The first critical yield-forming Blüh - and pollination phase of corn and soybeans has started. Favorable weather prospects exist for the Pistons - and pod-filling phase. Ultimately decides to end Aug./beg. Sept the grain filling stage on the last-but-not-least income component.
Last Sunday's US seed status report sees the corn stocks with a slight improvement to 76% in the category of good-to-excellent. The result is again better than in the previous year. the spreading width according to state ranging from 46 to 67% in the "good"level and 11 to 32% in the "excellent level".
The sustained favorable animal muster and the favorable weather Outlook the next 2 weeks increasingly support assessment that above-average yields can be expected this year. The earnings forecasts are still working with average earnings assumptions. Should actually higher revenues confirm in the harvest, the already high harvest estimate must be corrected again upwards. Bearisch tuned brokers see need for further price correction in the corn down from this angle as it has happened so far.
The soybean is an average 41% during the flowering phase, 4 points more than in the previous year. The spread between the U.S. States from South to North is however very broad in scope.
Soybean stocks were "good-to-excellent" with 72% in the upper part of the average in the summary of the two categories. The spreading width from 37 to 62% is the "good" level. Speculation about above-average yields insert in the soybean, even with Handbrake. The soy bean reacts much more sensitive to weather fluctuations than the corn. The crucial phase will be August the month, whose largely uncertain to estimate is wetter.
The U.S. soybean crop will be with a provisional estimates result from 104 Mio.t (previous year 89.5 million tons) be the decisive turning point for pricing next year. The recent price declines have failed so far moderately given the currently still tight supply situation. Applying the usual relationships between supply number "stock-to-use ratio" and soy prices, still a considerable price reduction potential can be seen. Again, this assessment is emphasized by the recent fall in the oil palm.
