Market status (until week 31)
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Euronext wheat (Sep, IX): from 202.75 €/t (22.07.) to 196.75 €/t (29.07.) → Trend: ↓ bearish
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Northern hemisphere harvest: mostly on schedule, yield/quality solid; rain phases delayed locally, no structural quality losses so far → Signal: → neutral
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EU balance 25/26: high export demand, but subdued global demand → Price pressure: ↓
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FX: short-term euro depreciation supported only briefly → recovery fizzles out → signal: →/↑ (potentially supportive, but limited so far)
Short-term trend indicators (week 32)
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Fundamental:
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Technical (Euronext Sep):
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Break 200 €/t; support zone 195-196 € /t in focus → rebound attempt possible (→/↑)
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Resistance 200-203 €/t; above 205-207 €/t → Cover as long as demand is weak
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Forecast (Euronext Wheat Sep, IX) - week 32 to week 35
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Basic scenario (60 %): Sideways to slightly weak (→/↓) in 195-202 €/t
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Reason: Export demand remains sluggish; high crop supply; limited FX support.
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Upside scenario (25 %): Technical countermovement (↑) in 202-206 €/t
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Triggers: weaker euro, quality premiums (milling), tender impulses (MENA/Asia), weather-related delays.
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Downwards scenario (15 %): Sliding (↓) towards 191-193 €/t
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Triggers: aggressive Black Sea supply, weak US/EU export figures, continued strong currency of buyers.
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Spot market D/A/AT (week 32)
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Mills: continued hand-to-mouth, focus on quality-assured lots; wide bid/ask spread remains. Trend: → (quality) / ↓ (feed/standard)
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Producers: Reluctance among sellers below €200/t (forward) or at bid prices offer - willingness to stock quality increases.
Implications & framework for action (short)
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Producers (quality wheat): Hedge partial quantities at ≥ 200-203 €/t forward; rest staggered. Bias: neutral
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Mills/buyers: secure quality early; wait for feed wheat near 195 €/t (forward) or on a broader basis at the cash desk. Bias: slightly bearish
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Hedging: Check short overlays on rebound in 200-205 €/t; set tight stops at 195 €/t (false break risk).
