The CFTC data for wheat and corn from January 20, 2015

With 11,892 contracts, speculators in Chicago wheat are now leaving the warehouse of the previous majority of net long positions to 2,462 net short positions. This "rethink" has become apparent because US goods are difficult to sell on the market due to the currency. Prices in Chicago are coming under greater pressure, reaching the lowest level for two months at the equivalent of EUR 171 per tonne. By contrast, prices in Paris are holding up well because exporters are benefiting from the weak euro. However, this positive short-term trend for domestic arable farmers should not obscure the fundamental reality. The weak oil price is blocking sales to the non-food sector and making global overseas shipments cheaper, which in turn could lead to further market distortions.

Corn speculators are also becoming more skeptical. The net long position lost 7,993 contracts, so that the number of net long positions slipped below the 200,000 mark for the first time in months with a total of 196,618 net long positions. As the euro countries compete less with US maize on the world market, the weaker euro plays a subordinate role here. In the case of US corn, the non-food sector is more important, although the planned restrictions on US corn cultivation in the coming campaign - in favor of soybeans - are giving US corn prices stability.

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