In the last reporting week, speculators in Chicago increased their net short positions in wheat by 11,662 positions to a total of 78,928 net short positions. The "seller trend" thus reflects the significantly lower stock market prices. Prices in Chicago are thus at the level of the poor prices of the 2008 and 2009 harvests and there is currently no improvement in sight. Prices in Paris have also fallen by 30% since April of this year and are moving ever closer to the 2008 and 2009 harvest prices. Even if European wheat has become more competitive due to the more favorable euro/dollar exchange rate for exports, Russian exports are hard to beat and the Russians are, after all, the direct competitors in North Africa and the Middle East.
Only maize speculators are somewhat more optimistic; net long positions have decreased by 5,509 contracts to 81,536 net long positions, but buyers still dominate among speculators. This is certainly also due to the fact that maize prices are at their worst level since 2006 and at the moment hardly anyone can imagine lower prices in Chicago (equivalent to 100 euros/t). The situation is similar in Paris, although prices there are also 30 euros/t higher than in Chicago. In any case, it seems right that maize prices have bottomed out sooner than wheat prices.
