Net short positions among wheat speculators in Chicago also increased in the last reporting week. An increase of 2,704 contracts resulted in a total of 20,945 net short positions. This led to further price pressure.
There was a virtual "landslide" among corn speculators in Chicago. 83,169 contracts switched from the buyer to the seller camp, resulting in 58,404 net short positions.
Fortunately, the market prices for wheat in this country have risen somewhat in recent weeks. The low euro/dollar exchange rate and the low water levels on our shipping routes "helped" prices. The reports of a drought in Ukraine and parts of Russia related more to the 16 harvest and have since become outdated again. Due to the rise in stock market prices, the basis for bread wheat for delivery of the old harvest in the coming year has deteriorated, meaning that the producer price was only able to benefit slightly from the rising stock market prices. The latest USDA figures from November 2015 will point the way forthe further development of prices .
The reduced consumption expectations, which are also documented by the weakening wheat exports from the US and the EU - which have so far fallen short of expectations - are striking. In China in particular, initial stocks of maize have been significantly increased and consumption expectations have been reduced at the same time. However, domestic feed producers also fear weaker sales opportunities. The prolonged period of low prices for milk and pigs is having an impact, with farmers reacting by holding back on selling feed. While final stocks of wheat fell by 1 million tons compared to the previous month, final stocks of coarse grains - particularly maize - rose by 24 million tons. It can be assumed that the increase in final stocks of maize will also have an impact on the wheat market, which is not exactly positive for arable farmers. The stock-to-use ratio for all grain has risen by over 1% compared to last month and, at 23.9%, is considerably higher than the average of 21.1% for the last five marketing years. It would take a lot of imagination and an even more severe EL Nino or something similar to slow down the increase in ending stocks on the world grain market compared to last year.
