COCERAL with 2nd preview of EU harvest 2025
As usual, the umbrella organization of European grain and oilseed traders (COCERAL) published a second preview of the 2025 grain harvest in mid-March. The results are primarily based on the acreages determined. The yields per hectare were derived from the multi-year development of acreage yields and current estimates of the sowing status. As is usual in such cases, no unusual events are assumed. The results are to be understood as an advanced orientation guide.
The total EU grain harvest in 2025 is estimated at around 274.5 million tons, which is only just in line with the multi-year average. The higher result compared to the previous year (258.3 million tons) is due to a 1.7 % increase in the area under cultivation and +4.56 % higher estimated average yields.
There are considerable differences between the individual EU member states due to different starting conditions:
The largest increase in production of +12.5% to 60.2 million tons is expected for France. However, the year 2024 (53.5 million tons) was catastrophically bad. Nevertheless, the multi-year average of 65 to 70 million tons will not be reached in 2025.
In Germany, the 2nd largest production region, the grain harvest is forecast to increase by +5.8 % year-on-year to 41.4 million tons this year. An increase in acreage of +2.4 % and a yield increase of +3.2 % will contribute to this. The decisive factor is the higher wheat harvest, while maize production will fall. Barley is expected to remain unchanged.
In the weather-critical growing regions of Romania and Hungary, only just average results are expected again after the two weak previous years, despite increases of +7 % to +10 %. Experience shows that there are still considerable risks to yields up to the threshing date.
In contrast, the comparative forecast for Spain and Portugal is negative at -12 % compared to the very good previous year, with the result remaining at the lower end of the multi-year averages.
Production volumes in Italy are expected to remain at the lower end of the mid-range in 2025 with little change.
Largely unchanged results are forecast for Poland compared to the previous year; the harvest is expected to be above the multi-year average.
After the setbacks, the many small producing countries are expected to produce average harvests again, which should be +6.4 % higher than the weak previous year.
Conclusion: The expected larger EU harvest will just reach the average level of previous years. The EU supply situation will only improve moderately in view of significantly smaller overstock quantities.
