Sep. 2024: COCERAL cuts its 3rd estimate of the EU grain harvest
The umbrella organization of European grain and oilseed traders (COCERAL) has estimated the EU grain harvest at only 260.6 million tonnes (previous year 272 million tonnes) in its latest Sep. 24 issue. A lower area under cultivation and significant yield reductions were decisive for the result. However, the differences between the types of grain and the individual EU member states are considerable.
The wheat harvest is estimated to be -8.7% down on the previous year. Barley production, however, is estimated to have been +2.5% higher, mainly due to the above-average yield of spring barley. The results for rye and triticale are only slightly worse than in the previous year. However, the maize harvest is classified as -6.7 % less favorable. However, the harvest is not yet complete.
There are stark differences between the individual growing regions. France, the largest EU production area, was hit the hardest with a harvest decline of more than -15% or -10 million tons. In addition to a smaller area, the low yield per hectare was the main reason for this. Several south-eastern European countries such as Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria also recorded harvest losses of between -15% and -17%. In Germany and Italy, the production result is also classified as -7.7% lower.
With a doubling compared to the previous year, Spain is returning to the results before the last disaster year of 2023. In the majority of small EU cultivation areas, an overall increase of 50% was recorded, a result that essentially compensates for some of the setbacks of recent years.
With its latest results (260 million tons), the Coceral estimate is still below the USDA estimate of 262 million tons from 12 Sep.2024. In its forecast at the end of Aug.-24, the EU COM still expected around 264 million tons.
In the case of the EU rapeseed harvest, COCERAL is only forecasting 17.1 million tons as a result of lower cultivation areas and weak yields per hectare with a focus on France and Germany. In comparison, the USDA estimate of 12 Sep-24 was 17.65 million tons. At the end of August, the EU-KOM had forecast a harvest of 18 million tons.
The previous year's result was around 20 million tons.
