EU COM corrects EU grain harvest slightly higher than previous month.
In the Nov 2024 issue, the EU Commission estimates the current EU grain harvest at 256.9 million tons, +0.5% higher than in the previous month. Nevertheless, the result remains -11 million tons or -4.1 % below the previous year. This is due to the change in acreage and yields.
Consumption in the EU domestic market is classified as largely unchanged at 257 million tons.
Third-country exports fell from 51.6 to 39.1 million tons. Wheat is 90% affected by this. On the import side, 31.3 million tons (previous year: 33.5 million tons) are estimated; 60% of these are maize imports, most of which are destined for Spain.
The supply balance is negative: from initial stocks of 44 million tons, final stocks have fallen to 36 million tons. This is the lowest average since 2018-2020.
Wheat production is now only 119.5 million tons (previous year: 132.6 million tons). The lower area under cultivation and the lower yield per hectare contributed to this. Domestic consumption is estimated to be only slightly lower than in the previous year at 110.6 million tons. In third country trade, 25 million tons are exported and around 10 million tons of quality wheat are imported.
In the rest of the grain sector, net production of 137.4 million tons is offset by consumption of 146.4 million tons. Net imports of around 8 million tons (21.3 million tons of imports to 13.4 million tons of exports) are required to cover demand. At 16.5 million tons, the (net) maize imports included in this figure are lower than in previous years.
In view of the tight supply situation in the EU domestic market, it is only logical that prices in this country remain somewhat more stable
