EU COM makes further downward adjustment to EU grain supply
In the latest February 2020 issue, the EU Commission (EU COM) updated the EU grain supply. Production was again reduced slightly compared to the previous month and is now -4.7% below the previous year's level. The available quantity is now only 255.2 million tons. Domestic consumption is adjusted slightly to 257 million tons and remains unchanged year-on-year. Feed use is estimated at just under 157 million tons (around 61% share). Ending stocks fall by around 21% to 34.7 million tons, almost as low as the 2016/17/18 average.
The EU wheat market reached a production volume of 119 million tons (previous year: 132.6 million tons). Domestic consumption remains at the previous year's level of 110.6 million tons. Exports fall from 36.5 to 25.7 million tons. Imports of 10 million tons will decrease by around 2 million tons. Stocks will decrease by -7.3 million tons and fall back to the level of 2020/21
Coarse grain production is estimated to be slightly higher at 136.2 million tons (previous year: 135.2 million tons). Of this, 98 million tons are attributable to grain maize and 49.2 million tons to barley. Triticale will reach 9.9 million tons and rye 6.9 million tons. Oats rose again to 7.7 million tons after the weak previous year.
Coarse grain consumption increases only marginally to 146 million tons and is used ¾ of the time in the animal feed sector. An unchanged 14% is used for industrial purposes with a focus on bioethanol production. Corn imports fall to 19.5 million tons. In contrast, barley exports increased slightly to around 10 million tons. Ending stocks of coarse grain as a whole are down by just under 2 million tons.
If the 1st Coceral estimate based on acreage is accurate, a slight improvement in the supply situation can be expected in 2025. However, the initial stocks are comparatively small. AND: area yields remain risky due to weather conditions.
