EU COM: New estimate of EU grain supply from Aug. 29, 2024
The regular estimate of EU grain supply published at the end of the month showed a harvest volume of 264.5 million tons or around -2% below the previous year. Consumption is estimated to remain largely unchanged at 257 million tons. Exports were reduced to 40.4 million tons, while imports are estimated at 29 million tons. Ending stocks fall to 42.7 million tons.
The total EU wheat harvest is estimated at 122.95 million tons. Consumption in the EU domestic market is expected to reach 110.4 million tons. In the case of common wheat, there are 26 million tons of exports and 6 million tons of imports; the imports are mainly quality wheat. In the case of durum wheat, 2.3 million tons of net imports or 25% of EU consumption will be required. EU wheat stocks fall by -17%.
The total barley harvest is estimated at 51.3 million tons and consumption at 42 million tons. Net exports are expected to reach 9 million tons. Ending stocks will change only slightly.
In the case of rye and triticale, the supply balance remains largely balanced. The rye market will reach around 7.4 million tons and triticale 10.7 million tons.
The outstanding K. maize harvest is estimated at 61.6 million tons. With little change in yield expectations, the expanded acreage is the decisive factor. However, considerable harvest risks are still feared in the Southeast European member states.
As a major exporting country at world level, the EU is making a significant contribution to global market and price developments with reduced harvests and export figures. The recent price increases on the stock markets underpin this assessment.
