EU COM reduces EU grain supply again: significantly less wheat
In its latest end-Sep-2024 report, the EU Commission (EU COM) has significantly reduced the EU grain supply. On the production side, only around 261 million tons of grain are expected (previous year: around 270 million tons). Consumption is estimated to be slightly higher at 257 million tons. Exports will fall considerably from last year's 51.5 million tons to this year's 40.0 million tons. On the import side, there will be a slight decline to 31.2 million tons. Stocks shrank from 46.2 to 41 million tons or only 15.5% of consumption, the lowest level in 7 years.
The EU wheat supply has lost the most. The harvest is 121.7 million tons (previous year 132.5 million tons). Consumption is expected to fall only slightly to 110.5 million tons. Exports will fall from 36 to 26 million tons. Imports of quality goods will remain at a reduced level of around 10 million tons (previous year: 12 million tons). Inventories shrank by just under 6 million tons or -33%. France and Germany are the countries most affected.
The EU barley harvest is estimated at 50.4 million tons. Of this, 42 million tons are consumed on the domestic market and around 10 million tons are exported. Stocks will change only marginally.
In the case of rye (7.1 million tons) and triticale (10.2 million tons), the reductions are limited. In both cases, however, stocks are being reduced in order to cover domestic demand.
The maize harvest, which has not yet been completed, is estimated at only 60.1 million tons. Particularly heavy losses are predicted in the south-eastern European member states of Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary. With consumption of 76 million tons, net imports of around 16 million tons are required. Deliveries to Spain and the north-western European processing regions will be the main focus.
Production increases can only be reported in the small markets for spring barley and oats.
Overall, the EU grain market in 2024/25 is at the same low level as 10 years ago
Following the price declines since the start of the 2024 harvest, grain prices have stabilized at a higher level with a slight upward trend. The market prices for wheat are quoted at around € 220/t.
