EU-Commission with 1st estimate of EU grain supply 2025-26
At the end of March, the EU Commission publishes its first forecast for the EU grain market in 2025/26, based on the area under cultivation and yield expectations, which are estimated in a first version by the Agrometeorological Institute with the help of climate data evaluation.
The EU acreage is estimated to be 2.8% higher than in the previous year. Average yields per hectare are expected to reach 5.6 tons (previous year: 5.2 tons). This results in a provisional harvest volume of 280.7 million tons, around 10% higher than in the disastrous previous year. This would once again be a good average harvest if the weather does not throw a spanner in the works.
EU grain consumption in 2025/26 is expected to increase only marginally to 257.3 million tons according to EU COM estimates. Exports are again estimated at 45.4 million tons (previous year: 39.6 million tons). Imports are expected to fall by just under 17% to 25.6 million tons. This includes 18.3 million tons of maize imports.
Ending stocks are calculated at 37.8 million tons or +10.5% compared to the tight previous year. This means that a good average supply situation - measured against multi-year averages - can once again be assumed. However, there are still considerable weather risks until the harvest!
The EU wheat harvest is forecast at a multi-year average level of 134.4 million tons (previous year: 119 million tons) due to the increase in acreage and good average yield expectations. Consumption in the domestic market remains unchanged at around 111 million tons.
Wheat exports are expected to amount to around 31 million tons, higher than in the previous year but only average in a multi-year comparison. Imports of 5.4 million tons are expected to almost halve compared to the previous year.
At 8.4 million tons, wheat stocks - measured in terms of ending stocks - are significantly lower than the previous year's average of 17 million tons. The supply situation therefore remains tight. The background to this is the high export potential due to the tight situation on the rest of the world market.
Other cereals, including maize (65 million tons), barley (51.7 million tons), triticale (10.9 million tons), rye (7.7 million tons) and oats (7.5 million tons), are estimated to have a combined above-average production volume of 146.3 million tons. The 5-year average is around 140 million tons.
Domestic consumption remains essentially unchanged at around 146.5 million tons.
Ending stocks in this grain sector are higher than in the two previous years and are in the upper mid-range of the last five years.
The production estimates for other cereals are more critical because the sowing of summer crops has not yet been completed and the susceptibility to unpredictable climatic conditions is greater.
