01.
11.24
10:14
Harvest 2024 worse than 15 years ago

EU-KOM with further reduced harvest estimate

EU COM: EU grain harvest 2024 at lowest level in over a decade

In the harvest estimate published at the end of Oct. 24, the EU Commission (EU-COM) set the preliminary result for the 2024 grain harvest at around 255 million tons, even lower than in the previous month. The result is -4.7% below the already weak previous year; the 5-year average is 280.5 million tons. In a longer-term multi-year comparison, the 2024 harvest is even worse than 15 years ago. For the first time, the current harvest will not cover one year's consumption.

Consumption is expected to remain largely constant at 257 million tons. On the import side, trade with third countries is expected to be in the order of 31.2 million tons, which will mainly be determined by corn imports of 19 million tons and quality wheat imports of around 10 million tons. On the export side, there is a total volume of 39 million tons, which is primarily made up of 25 million tons of wheat and 10 million tons of barley.

Calculable ending stocks shrank by 9.4 million tons or around 24%, two thirds of which were in the wheat sector.

The overall result can initially be attributed to a -4.4% reduction in acreage as a result of unfavorable weather conditions during sowing and a lower yield per hectare with a regional lack of rainfall or too much rainfall averaging only 50 dt/ha (previous year: approx. 55 dt/ha)

Among the individual EU producing countries, the poor harvests in France (-18 %), Hungary (-16 %), Romania (-10.5 %), Germany (-9 %) and Italy (-8.7 %) are particularly significant in a multi-year comparison.

Among the individual types of grain, wheat suffered the greatest losses with around -20 million tons or -15 % less than in the previous year. In the case of grain maize, harvest reductions of -6.5 million tons or -10 % are expected. In contrast, the combined production volume of winter and spring barley is expected to be slightly higher due to the increased cultivation of summer crops as a result of failed winter crops. The situation is similar for oats with an increase of +36%, but this does not play a decisive role due to the small volume (3%).

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