FAO once again revises world grain harvest estimate downwards
In its latest March 2025 edition, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has once again revised the world grain harvest downwards compared to the previous month. Production (excluding rice) is estimated at 2,298.8 million tons (previous year: 2,321.3 million tons). Global consumption is estimated to be higher at 2,381 million tons (previous year: 2,312.6 million tons). The shortfall from the 2024/25 harvest will be offset by the reduction in stocks. As a result, the supply figure will fall to 29.9% final stocks to consumption. In previous years, with the exception of 2020/21, the average was just under 31%.
If the significant increase in the rice harvest of 543 million tons is taken into account, the overall statistical balance can be expected to improve slightly.
At 792 million tons, global wheat production in 2024/25 is expected to remain at the previous year's level. Consumption is expected to be slightly higher at 796.8 million tons. Stocks at the end of the year will be reduced by around 5 million tons to 312.8 million tons. This is the 3rd year in a row that the supply situation has declined.
The supply situation in the coarse grain sector , with a focus on maize, has deteriorated significantly in 2024/25. A production volume of 1,506.5 million tons contrasts with consumption of 1,531.3 million tons. This leads to a significant reduction in stocks of around -18 million tons to just 350 million tons. The supply figure of 22.5 % final stocks to consumption is significantly lower than the medium-term average of 25.5 %.
Early forecast for the 2025 harvest:
In the case of global wheat production, the FAO estimates that a modest 1% increase in the harvest to 796 million tons is on the horizon. Increases in production are expected in the EU-27, the USA and Canada. In India, favorable weather conditions give hope for an above-average wheat harvest. In neighboring Pakistan, conditions are less favorable, meaning that only a small average harvest can be expected.
In contrast, a 2 % decline to 80 million tons compared to the already weak previous year is expected in Russia due to reduced acreage and weak field stocks. In China, field assessments point to largely unchanged wheat production. In Turkey, Iran and Morocco, drought has led to very patchy crops. There are also reports of drought-related yield losses from Argentina.
Maize production in the USA is expected to expand further in 2025. This is due to the favorable corn-soybean price ratio, which will lead to a reduction in soybean acreage. High maize prices also favor secondary cultivation in Brazil, where maize is grown after a late soybean harvest.
