Nov. 2024: FAO revises world grain harvest (incl. rice) downwards
In the latest Nov. 24 issue, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates that the global grain harvest (including rice) will be -0.4% lower than in the previous year. In contrast, consumption is estimated to be +0.5% higher. As a result, global stocks (according to the FAO calculation model) will fall to just 30.6% of consumption (previous year: 30.9%).
Excluding rice, the production estimate falls by -0.66%, while consumption rises by +0.2%.
The FAO puts global wheat production in 2024/25 at 792 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year's figure of 789 million tons. Good harvests were recorded in Asia, while harvests in Western countries, including Russia, were weak in some cases due to weather conditions. Wheat consumption is forecast to remain unchanged at 797 million tons. Stocks are falling slightly accordingly.
Wheat sowings for the coming 2025 harvest year are expected to be lower due to difficult sowing conditions and weaker prices.
For other cereals, with a focus on maize , the FAO estimates a decline in production to 1,517 million tons (previous year: 1,535 million tons) or around -1.2 %. Consumption will increase by 5 million tons to 1,525 million tons. This results in a noticeable decline in final stocks to just 23.7% of consumption.
While maize harvests in South America (spring 2025) are viewed rather critically, favorable results are expected for South Africa.
Despite a strong increase in consumption, the rice market is more than well supplied on average due to high stocks.