FAO estimates world grain supply w. rice lower than in previous year
In its monthly Oct. 24 report, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) comes to the conclusion that the global grain supply in 2024/25 must be classified as lower than in the previous year.
The world grain balance, including rice, initially leads to a reduction in production to 2,852 million tons compared to the previous year's figure of 2,856 million tons. This is offset by an expected increase in consumption to 2,856 million tons (previous year: 2,843 million tons). The shortfall of 4 million tons must be covered by reducing inventories.
However, if the world grain market is balanced without the increased rice harvest, there is a shortfall of around 13 million tons from current production compared to consumption. As a rule, the latter balance sheet is more important for pricing.
For the wheat sector, the FAO estimates a production of 793 million tons with an increase of around 3 million tons compared to the previous year. Higher harvests in Australia and Argentina are offset by lower results in Russia, Ukraine and the EU-27. Consumption is estimated at 794 million tons (previous year: 798 million tons). This results in a limited increase in stocks.
For other cereals, with a focus on maize, the FAO forecasts a drop in production to 1,521 million tons compared to the previous year's figure of 1,532 million tons. In contrast, consumption is expected to rise from 1,515 million tons last year to 1,526.6 million tons this year. The shortfall of 15 million tons will lead to a decline in stocks.
Rice production is estimated to be 5 million tons higher than in the previous year. Consumption is expected to increase slightly more. The balance will only just break even.
Despite the different recording and evaluation methods used by other institutions, the FAO tends to come to similar conclusions about a shortage of world grain supplies in 2024/25.
