Feb. 2025: FAO updates world grain supply at lower level
In its latest monthly edition (Feb. 2025), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has updated the supply situation on the world grain market. Global grain production (excluding rice) is estimated to be slightly lower at 2,301 million tons; global consumption is expected to be slightly higher at 2,331.7 million tons. At the end of the grain year, final stocks will be reduced to 662.6 million tons or 28.4% of consumption. This means that the multi-year reduction in global stocks is continuing.
The global wheat supply was only adjusted slightly. The global harvest is estimated at 788.6 million tons (previous year: 789 million tons). Consumption remains at the previous year's level of 797.2 million tons. At 196.7 million tons, reserves have slipped back to the 2021/22 level. The tight supply situation will continue for the time being.
On the production side, the coarse grain market, with a maize share of around 80%, will be reduced by 21 million tons compared to the previous year to 1,513 million tons. The main reason for this is the lower US harvest. However, global consumption is expected to rise to 1,534 million tons (previous year: 1,520 million tons). The renewed increase in feed consumption will have a significant impact here. In this case, the supply balance shows a reduction in stocks to 354 million tons compared to 368 million tons in the previous year.
The global rice supply is still on the rise due to higher production results of 539 million tons compared to consumption of 537 million tons.
Initial outlook for the 2025 harvest year:
With the end of the sowing of winter cereals in the northern hemisphere, the first cautious estimates for the 2025 harvest can be derived. The FAO assumes the following information:
- In the EU , wheat cultivation has increased significantly again compared to the difficult previous year, with a focus on France and Germany.
- This observation also applies to Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
- In Russia, the unfavorable weather has led to a considerable reduction in winter sowing areas and weak field stocks. Unusually high temperatures are reducing the snow cover and increasing the risk of wintering.
- In India, high prices and favorable weather conditions support the assessment of a good harvest.
In the southern hemisphere, there are still limited calculable weather risks:
- After a dry phase, there has been some rainfall again in Argentina, meaning that the prospects for harvests in the 1st half of 2025 have improved again. However, the area under maize cultivation is expected to be below the previous year.
- In Brazil, the high maize prices could increase the secondary cultivation of maize after soybeans. However, the problem is a delayed soybean harvest due to sowing, which could limit the area under cultivation.
- In South Africa, record-high maize prices have contributed to an increase in maize cultivation.
